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| Dear Friend of Zetland, |
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| 2017 – Year of the Rooster |
| For various reasons 2016 was a year that many of us would prefer to forget. So what is 2017 likely to bring us? The Chinese lunar calendar will have us in the Year of the Rooster from 28th January following on from the current Year of the Monkey. A quick Google search of Chinese astrologer sites shows predictions ranging from a year of disasters to a relatively benign, prosperous time. So let me try my hand at a few (Asian) economic conjectures: |
| • China will keep growing. Although the rate of growth has slowed in recent years the ever-expanding base of the Chinese economy means that the absolute size of each year’s increment is enormous. Expect more Chinese acquisitions in Europe and USA and continued investments in S E Asia, Africa and S America. There are also signs that the domestic economy is successfully rebalancing away from manufacturing and into services. |
| • Hong Kong is due to elect a new Chief Executive in March 2017. Although Hong Kongers were traditionally politically apathetic this has changed in recent years. The incumbent Chief Executive is highly unpopular (he is not standing for re-election) and whoever wins will enjoy a honeymoon period. The election takes place through a 1,200 person committee and any candidates will have been approved by China beforehand. I therefore think that Hong Kong might enjoy a good Year of the Rooster. |
| • Singapore has been unusually depressed last year but there are signs that the economy is improving again. |
| • Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines will be strong performers in 2017 but Malaysia is likely to be a laggard because of political problems. |
| • Japan continues to face challenges because of an aging (and shrinking) population. A lot will depend on the future course of “Abenomics”. South Korea also faces domestic political problems not to mention its unpredictable neighbour to the north. |
| Overall I think on balance there are reasons to be optimistic for the Year of the Rooster in Asia although issues with Trump, Brexit, Europe and the Middle East can always affect matters. The Zetland offices in Hong Kong and Singapore will be closed on 30 and 31 January for Chinese New Year holidays. |
Yours sincerely,
James C Sutherland
Chairman
Zetland Fiduciary Group |
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